Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon

Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon

Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCM

Tomorrow, the unemployment rate for April 2020 will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It will hit a peak this country has never seen before, with data representing real families and lives affected by this economic slowdown. The numbers will alarm us. There will be headlines and doomsday scenarios in the media. There is hope, though, that as businesses reopen, most people will become employed again soon.

Unemployment in Northern Virginia has largely mirrored the national trends as well.  According to the Virginia Employment Commission, young female workers have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19 layoffs.  The latest unemployment numbers for Virginia can be found at the Virginia Employment Commission website, including how to file for unemployment in Virginia.

Last month’s nationwide report indicated we initially lost over 700,000 jobs in this country, and the unemployment rate quickly rose to 4.4%. With the release of the new data, that number will climb even higher. Experts forecast this report will show somewhere between a 15% - 20% national unemployment rate, and some anticipate that number to be even greater (see graph below):Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCM

What’s happened over the last several weeks? 

Here’s a breakdown of this spring’s weekly unemployment filings:Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCMThe good news shown here indicates the number of additional unemployment claims has decreased week over week since the beginning of April. Carlos Rodriguez, CEO of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) says based on what he’s seeing:

“It’s possible that companies are already anticipating some kind of normalization, opening in certain states and starting to post jobs.” 

He goes on to say that this doesn’t mean all companies are hiring, but it could mean they are at the point where they’re not cutting jobs anymore. Let’s hope this trend continues.

Northern Virginia Unemployment Numbers

While there was a large increase in unemployment numbers at the beginning of April, these numbers have also been steadily decreasing as we are seeing with the national number.  At the end of April, first-time claims for benefits were down by approximately 12.4% from the previous week.

Initial Unemployment Claims in Northern Virginia localities

LOCALITY

14-Mar

21-Mar

28-Mar

4-Apr

11-Apr

18-Apr

25-Apr

since 3/15

Fairfax County

145

4,345

12,109

21,302

14,454

11,239

9,126

72,575

Prince William

90

2,222

5,863

9,178

6,353

5,080

4,508

33,204

Loudoun

53

1,622

4,561

7,070

4,799

3,751

3,048

24,851

Arlington

19

849

1,752

2,484

1,897

1,438

1,146

9,566

Alexandria

33

797

1,683

2,578

1,895

1,398

1,212

9,563

Stafford

31

579

1,699

2,263

1,468

1,164

1,004

8,177

Fauquier

9

254

753

1,029

652

497

425

3,610

Manassas

10

198

603

874

601

482

402

3,160

Culpeper

9

195

550

698

478

396

351

2,668

Falls Church

4

55

134

214

138

87

101

729

Fairfax City

0

11

11

15

4

5

25

71

Manassas Park

1

2

9

3

5

4

4

27

TOTALS

404

11,129

29,727

47,708

32,744

25,541

21,352

168,201

Source: InsideNova

What will the future bring?

Most experts predict that while unemployment is high right now, it won’t be that way for long. The length of unemployment during this crisis is projected to be significantly shorter than the duration seen in the Great Recession and the Great Depression.Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCMWhile forecasts may be high, the numbers are trending down and the length of time isn’t expected to last forever.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the headlines rattle you. There’s hope coming as we start to safely reopen businesses throughout the country. Unemployment affects our families, our businesses, and our country. Our job is to rally around those impacted and do our part to support them through this time.

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